Corona Virus is a bank stress test only its real.

Who believes the Allied Irish Banks ATMs will still be operating on the 1st July 2020?

  • They will be.

    Votes: 2 100.0%
  • They won't be.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    2

valamhic

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I believe there is no such thing as a boom a burst, a recession, a depression or an upturn in economics. All there is is a miss-valuation
of assets. Take the 1929 crash, too high a value was placed on stocks (ownership of companies). Take the lead up to the 2008 crash, there was too
high a value placed on land and buildings. If there is too low a value placed on them, money will rush in to buy them up, if they go too high
the ability of buyers to get loans to keep buying will wither.

I have been buying the company accounts of companies and in particular Irish wind farms for 2 years and find a massive over value of wind farm assets and I found some over valuation in other assets too. At some stage some of thee assets will be offered for sale and buyers will not find the money and
the reality will dawn that they are not worth much. We never put things right after the 2008 crash and regulators are not doing their jobs at all.

The present regulator makes Patrick Neary look like a disciplinarian. Deutscshe Bank is the 5th largest bank in the world and holds 43 trillion Euros
in derivatives. These are a sort of insurance policies to protect companies against events that could pull their profits below the break even line. On the law of averages there has to be at least 20% of these for pandemics. (8.6 trillion) If there are 4 larger banks, the total could be 8.6 X 5 = 43 trillion.

The demands for payment will be in the post next week and cheques will have to issue. Where will the money come from? Take this and the ordinary losses from Covid 19 and it will place a stress on the banks. How great will that be? I was predicting a banking failure before the pandemic, how
can it be possibly be avoided and how will it effect us all?
 

DS86DS

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[MOD]
Off topic, baiting, trolling and abusive responses will result in thread bans from this discussion.
[/MOD]
 

valamhic

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[MOD]
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Is there anything objectionable about the thread topic? It seems to me to be very relevant in the current economic climate.
 

DS86DS

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Is there anything objectionable about the thread topic? It seems to me to be very relevant in the current economic climate.
Hi valamhic, it was not aimed at the OP, but at future responses.
 

valamhic

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Hi valamhic, it was not aimed at the OP, but at future responses.
Oh very good. I think the there are two issues. The health issue and I believe some government action is called for and 2)
what is likely to happen going forward. Predicting events. It seems to me that Europe was on shaky ground before it and
I cannot see how this will be positive. I tend to be a prophet of doom, others say they will print money and all will be OK.

A good debate on that would be great. Is there any usernames who can read company accounts or have knowledge of economics?
 

valamhic

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valamhic

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I want to post a poll.

Who believes the Allied Irish Banks ATMs will still be operating on the 1st July 2020?

How do I do it and is it OK.
 

valamhic

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I miss not having someone capable of debating the current economic situation with. I believe intelligent
posters would love to partake but have been brutalized by gutter grade posters for too long.

If a meteorite identical to the one which wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago hit Tallaght to night,
no thread on any Irtish site would carry out a rational debate on it. That is how utterly irrelevant these sites are and its moderators fault.
 

DS86DS

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I want to post a poll.

Who believes the Allied Irish Banks ATMs will still be operating on the 1st July 2020?

How do I do it and is it OK.
I can set that up. What do you want the poll choice options to be?
 

valamhic

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I can set that up. What do you want the poll choice options to be?
OK, I need to think it out. I believe the BOI, AIB and Permanent TSB have much more dodgy loans than
the rating agencies know about. The AIB is the one which gives cash through the hole in the wall and is more important than the Permanent TSB for general public use. The AIB's rating will fall to Junk status (not investment grade) before the end of this month. Bond markets will not lend to them. I think BOI will trundle on for a while longer. The EIB has loaned them billion for green nonsense and not a cent will be recovered. The ECB will be printing money but it will not be enough. The Germans don;t want to be bailing out zombie banks. The Irish government has nothing to giver them and the pension find is gone.

So I believe that on the 1st July (just to pick a date) a person putting their card in the hole in the wall at the AIB will get nothing out.Moreover a person with deposits in the AIB will loose them all unless government bails them out and government has no money.
 
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