General Economic Chat

Youngdan

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This is going to be a general discussion or banter thread on all and any economic issues. We are seeing what I believe is the beginning of a deflationary economic collapse. Practically everyone thinks that this is impossible because Central Banks can print money ad infinitum.

The market here is in steep decline again so we could be starting this thread, very close to the onset of the collapse, which imo, was a few days ago
 

the Dark One

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Overall, the Exchequer recorded a surplus of just over €1 billion at the end of February, with tax revenue running 13.8% ahead of the same period last year. Income tax returns were strongly ahead by 14.6% year-on-year.

www.rte.ie

Corporation tax receipts over 200% ahead of target
Receipts of corporation tax ran 206.5% ahead of forecast in February, according to the latest Exchequer Return published by the Department of Finance.
www.rte.ie
www.rte.ie

So, as a new govt, who ever they may be, is being formed the economy is performing very well and humming along nicely.
I'm starting this thread as a benchmark to measure the economic performance of the next govt against what was handed to them.
And the best of luck to whatever govt is formed, let's hope they build on a strong performing base
 

Clanrickard

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Overall, the Exchequer recorded a surplus of just over €1 billion at the end of February, with tax revenue running 13.8% ahead of the same period last year. Income tax returns were strongly ahead by 14.6% year-on-year.

www.rte.ie

Corporation tax receipts over 200% ahead of target
Receipts of corporation tax ran 206.5% ahead of forecast in February, according to the latest Exchequer Return published by the Department of Finance.
www.rte.ie
www.rte.ie

So, as a new govt, who ever they may be, is being formed the economy is performing very well and humming along nicely.
I'm starting this thread as a benchmark to measure the economic performance of the next govt against what was handed to them.
And the best of luck to whatever govt is formed, let's hope they build on a strong performing base
Which is why we need to keep SF out.
 
D

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Over 500,000 people either out of work or receiving pandemic payments, new stats show

FIGURES RELEASED FROM the CSO this morning have shown how there are over 500,000 people on either the Live Register or claiming a payment due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Stats from the CSO show how the seasonally adjusted Live Register total for March 2020 was 207,200 which was an increase of 24,400 from February 2020. The unadjusted register stands at 205,209.

In the last week of March, 283,037 people were in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and 25,104 people were receiving money from the Temporary COVID-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme.

This means that there are 513,350 people claiming some form of unemployment benefit from the State.

Earlier today, Dermot O’Leary, chief economist with Goodbody Stockbrokers, told Morning Ireland that a report compiled by the company estimates that the unemployment rate may have risen to 17% in March.




Absolute shocking figures, but to be expected because of Covid.
 

Youngdan

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Not as shocking as the figure hear this morning for the weekly, or indeed weakly,claims.
6.6 million
over 3 million last week
 

Belgrade

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Not as shocking as the figure hear this morning for the weekly, or indeed weakly,claims.
6.6 million
over 3 million last week
What do they expect the figure will end up at?

It should also be considered that this is only a temp layoff, once the virus is eradicated we should be good to go with the majority of jobs and business.
 

Youngdan

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It is not that simple.
Lets say I am a hairdresser and I have 2 other ladies who rent 2 chairs from me and I rent the shop from Liam Landlord. Rent 2000, chairs 150 a week and I am a month closed.

I am out 1200 from the 2 girls and I owe Liam 2000, I owe insurance, electric,cable for the stupid TV, trash disposal, advertizing etc etc etc etc.


But the worst thing is that Moma with her 60 euro perm job and Joan with her highlights and nails for 90 euro, will not be coming in, because they are idle for the past month as well. In fact nearly allyour regulars are in a house with at least one idle person. Mona has realized that nobody cares what her hair looks like.

So just less than a month in, you realize that it is over. Liam next month can go and crank because you don't have 4000 euro.

It is done and dusted.


You are going to wait a month and then find a place with maybe 2 chairs and you rent that place for 200. You charge a lot less and entice Mona eventually to return.


There is not going to be, A Return to Normal.
because

Normal actually was not normal at all, but a bubble, which is only recognized by most, after it pops, and real normal exists
 

Youngdan

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I summed this up 6 weeks ago before you banned me you scour.


We are seeing a Massive Deflationary Slap.

Find that post on gaelach thread
 

Youngdan

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Ireland is like Willy Coyote, it has walked off a cliff.

Same here but much more complicated with the dollar and Treasury Bonds both about imo, to go kaput.

But this will be very exciting to watch


But we must try to restrict this to Ireland and it's situation, as we get more time and settled
 
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valamhic

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This is going to be a general discussion or banter thread on all and any economic issues. We are seeing what I believe is the beginning of a deflationary economic collapse. Practically everyone thinks that this is impossible because Central Banks can print money ad infinitum.

The market here is in steep decline again so we could be starting this thread, very close to the onset of the collapse, which imo, was a few days ago
I wonder if there are much derivatives covering a pandemic? Deutsche bank alone hold 49 trillion Euros in them. There are likely to be about 15% derivatives for pandemics. If there is, they will soon receive a bill.

 
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Even some large Businesses in the US are urging Trump to rethink his plans to reopen the economy.

OPening it too soon could be more harmful than good.
 

valamhic

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This is going to be a general discussion or banter thread on all and any economic issues. We are seeing what I believe is the beginning of a deflationary economic collapse. Practically everyone thinks that this is impossible because Central Banks can print money ad infinitum.

The market here is in steep decline again so we could be starting this thread, very close to the onset of the collapse, which imo, was a few days ago
We were near a collapse before it arrived. They will print money by the lorry load, but I suspect the virus shutdown will push the worlds economies over the edge.
 

valamhic

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Overall, the Exchequer recorded a surplus of just over €1 billion at the end of February, with tax revenue running 13.8% ahead of the same period last year. Income tax returns were strongly ahead by 14.6% year-on-year.

www.rte.ie

Corporation tax receipts over 200% ahead of target
Receipts of corporation tax ran 206.5% ahead of forecast in February, according to the latest Exchequer Return published by the Department of Finance.
www.rte.ie
www.rte.ie

So, as a new govt, who ever they may be, is being formed the economy is performing very well and humming along nicely.
I'm starting this thread as a benchmark to measure the economic performance of the next govt against what was handed to them.
And the best of luck to whatever govt is formed, let's hope they build on a strong performing base
90% of all new cars and vans bought in the past 2 years are 100% borrowed from PPC finance. Low oil prices did help
keep that cost low but we have the 3rd highest electricity prices in the world and 1st highest if VAT is not counted. The value of assets
in company accounts is overvalued and many companies rely of derivatives to keep up asset value. These are worth very little
 
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90% of all new cars and vans bought in the past 2 years are 100% borrowed from PPC finance. Low oil prices did help
keep that cost low but we have the 3rd highest electricity prices in the world and 1st highest if VAT is not counted. The value of assets
in company accounts is overvalued and many companies rely of derivatives to keep up asset value. These are worth very little
This PPC thing has always bothered me, is it a scam or a long term con to keep people in debt?
 

Clanrickard

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Unfortunately the scheme takes no account of the wealth of the proprietor.
 

DS86DS

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Interesting article about Keynesian economics.


Is there a chance we could be going back to the type of command economies we had during WW2 and the three decades thereafter?
 

valamhic

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This PPC thing has always bothered me, is it a scam or a long term con to keep people in debt?
AIB is 10 times more of a disaster than is commonly believed.
 
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