General Economic Chat

valamhic

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Good point, but would a joint government of SF and FG be the answer?
There is no answer. The people voted left and they got left. We will be governed by another troika for at least 8 years. The problem
is the ECB part of the troika is busted too
 

valamhic

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See this

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By Peter Flanagan 5 May 2020, 05:00 BST Updated on 5 May 2020, 09:32 BST
Irish Banks Again Europe’s Worst Performer as Crashes Add Up
Once again, Irish banks are at the sharp edge of a global crisis.
In 2008, it was the melting away of liquidity. Just over a decade on, it’s Covid-19. AIB Group Plc and Bank of Ireland Group Plc are the worst performers in the Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index over the past year, as the pandemic amplifies investor wariness toward the lenders.
To an extent, the legacy of the last crisis is shaping investor responses toward Ireland’s lenders this time round. After one of the worst real-estate crashes in history, the taxpayer had to bail out the entire sector and remains a key player to this day. The government still controls 71% of AIB, 14% of Bank of Ireland and 75% of Permanent TSB Group Holdings Plc.
“Investors have been concerned that the banks could be forced to lend into what is clearly a massive downturn and so be left with significant losses,” Eamonn Hughes, an analyst at Goodbody Stockbrokers, said.
While the lenders operate at arms length from the state, that message doesn’t always filter through, Hughes said. Last week, a finance ministry official addressed bank investors and analysts online, in what the ministry described as routine “two-way communication with equity investors.”
AIB, Bank of Ireland shares plunge as virus shutters economy Legacy of last crisis leaves banks vulnerable to bad loans
Bank of Ireland shares have lost 45% since March 1. AIB has dived 41% and Permanent TSB has dropped 40%. AIB shares traded at 1.24 euros ($1.35) on Tuesday, far below the 4.40 euros per share price when the government sold a stake three years ago, in what was meant to be a key step in the gradual unwinding of its bank stakes.
Instead, the government has remained a significant shareholder across the sector, leaving it vulnerable to political crosswinds.
“Irish banks have been on the wrong end of investor sentiment for some time, be it due to Brexit, weak lending, low interest rates or domestic politics,” Stephen Lyons, an analyst at Dublin-based securities firm Davy, said. “That negativity has impacted on market support into an uncertain coronavirus outlook.”
State Aid
The virus has ripped through one of the most open economies in Europe, and the state
 

Clanrickard

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See this

Business
By Peter Flanagan 5 May 2020, 05:00 BST Updated on 5 May 2020, 09:32 BST
Irish Banks Again Europe’s Worst Performer as Crashes Add Up
Once again, Irish banks are at the sharp edge of a global crisis.
In 2008, it was the melting away of liquidity. Just over a decade on, it’s Covid-19. AIB Group Plc and Bank of Ireland Group Plc are the worst performers in the Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index over the past year, as the pandemic amplifies investor wariness toward the lenders.
To an extent, the legacy of the last crisis is shaping investor responses toward Ireland’s lenders this time round. After one of the worst real-estate crashes in history, the taxpayer had to bail out the entire sector and remains a key player to this day. The government still controls 71% of AIB, 14% of Bank of Ireland and 75% of Permanent TSB Group Holdings Plc.
“Investors have been concerned that the banks could be forced to lend into what is clearly a massive downturn and so be left with significant losses,” Eamonn Hughes, an analyst at Goodbody Stockbrokers, said.
While the lenders operate at arms length from the state, that message doesn’t always filter through, Hughes said. Last week, a finance ministry official addressed bank investors and analysts online, in what the ministry described as routine “two-way communication with equity investors.”
AIB, Bank of Ireland shares plunge as virus shutters economy Legacy of last crisis leaves banks vulnerable to bad loans
Bank of Ireland shares have lost 45% since March 1. AIB has dived 41% and Permanent TSB has dropped 40%. AIB shares traded at 1.24 euros ($1.35) on Tuesday, far below the 4.40 euros per share price when the government sold a stake three years ago, in what was meant to be a key step in the gradual unwinding of its bank stakes.
Instead, the government has remained a significant shareholder across the sector, leaving it vulnerable to political crosswinds.
“Irish banks have been on the wrong end of investor sentiment for some time, be it due to Brexit, weak lending, low interest rates or domestic politics,” Stephen Lyons, an analyst at Dublin-based securities firm Davy, said. “That negativity has impacted on market support into an uncertain coronavirus outlook.”
State Aid
The virus has ripped through one of the most open economies in Europe, and the state
Untrue and false. If Peter Flanagan can't get this detail right why should we listen to him. There were banks not supported by the state. This is a huge opportunity to create a state owned bank focused regionally on small business, professionals and farmers which thinks long term.
 

Sparta

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I don't think the economic hit will be as bad as they say, of course, the longer the lockdown goes on the worse it will become as businesses go bust, but if we were to open next month say, there is no reason why thigs cannot just return to normal with a huge uptick.
 
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I don't think the economic hit will be as bad as they say, of course, the longer the lockdown goes on the worse it will become as businesses go bust, but if we were to open next month say, there is no reason why thigs cannot just return to normal with a huge uptick.
Predictions are now a bigger gamble than ever. That's the biggest problem.
 

Sparta

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Predictions are now a bigger gamble than ever. That's the biggest problem.
Yes, but as long as business adapts they should survive.

I don't think many factories for instance ever shut down, it was mostly retail and services.

Tourism is perhaps the bigger worry, however, if we can open up somehow for the domestic market they too could see huge bumps as people holiday within Ireland and not aborad.
 
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Yes, but as long as business adapts they should survive.

I don't think many factories for instance ever shut down, it was mostly retail and services.

Tourism is perhaps the bigger worry, however, if we can open up somehow for the domestic market they too could see huge bumps as people holiday within Ireland and not aborad.
Farming is taking a big hit too. Price of beef and milk is on the floor.
 

Sparta

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Farming is taking a big hit too. Price of beef and milk is on the floor.
Most likely from the collapse in Restaurants and hoteliers, If we somehow can get these partly reopen again then the knock-on effects will filter through to farmers.

We need to get the country working again, even if mostly for the internal domestic market.

I wish we could find a way to send over the production of food to those who need it, or some way to store it for emergency use. Sending food to Africa would do far more than sending Euros.
 
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Most likely from the collapse in Restaurants and hoteliers, If we somehow can get these partly reopen again then the knock-on effects will filter through to farmers.

We need to get the country working again, even if mostly for the internal domestic market.

I wish we could find a way to send over the production of food to those who need it, or some way to store it for emergency use. Sending food to Africa would do far more than sending Euros.
I'd say there's plenty of food in Africa. It's probably infrastructure that's the main problem.
 

Clanrickard

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Yes, but as long as business adapts they should survive.

I don't think many factories for instance ever shut down, it was mostly retail and services.

Tourism is perhaps the bigger worry, however, if we can open up somehow for the domestic market they too could see huge bumps as people holiday within Ireland and not aborad.
Even domestic tourism will not compensate for the loss of foreign tourists though some places like Tramore, Salthill, Lahinch, Kilkee and other seaside resorts might see an uptick as people head there as opposed to the Costas and the Algarve.
 
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Documentary on Fractional Reserve Banking.

 
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The EU Commission is forecasting EU -7.75% growth in 2020 and +6.25% growth in 2021.


That could happen.

Unfortunately -15% growth in 2020 and 1% in 2021 is just as plausible thanks to these imbecilic lockdowns.
 

Oliver Plunkett

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Dr. Kevin Barrett returns to Our Interesting Times to discuss his recent articles regarding the CV-19 Panic. Dr. Barrett has taught at colleges and universities in San Francisco, Paris and Wisconsin. He is the host of Truth Jihad Radio and the co-host of False Flag Weekly News.
 

Oliver Plunkett

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There have been whisperings of this on the commodities newswires of late. They are desperate to keep people in the currency and equities ponzi scheme

Crispin Odey, one of Europe’s highest-profile hedge fund managers, said that governments may ban private gold ownership if they lose control of inflation in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.



“It is no surprise that people are buying gold. But the authorities may attempt at some point to de-monetise gold, making it illegal to own as a private individual,” Odey wrote in a letter to investors seen by Bloomberg. “They will only do this if they feel the need to create a stable unit of account for world trade.”

Odey, a long-standing critic of central bank policies who is known for his apocalyptic predictions, increased the gold position in his flagship Odey European Inc. fund during the course of April.

 
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valamhic

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I would think the Irish economy will last another 6 weeks.
 
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I would think the Irish economy will last another 6 weeks.
What happens then?

Are we talking about Mad Max world or another famine?

I'm coming for your bull Val, ill chop it up and eat well for a year.
 

Youngdan

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The time frame could indeed be as short as 6 weeks. The payments of 600 have stopped here and bickering has meant no temporary replacement. So rent due and last month 40% did not pay. It will be more this month and by Sept 1st could be 100%. Why would anyone pay, even if they had the money
 

Anderson

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The time frame could indeed be as short as 6 weeks. The payments of 600 have stopped here and bickering has meant no temporary replacement. So rent due and last month 40% did not pay. It will be more this month and by Sept 1st could be 100%. Why would anyone pay, even if they had the money
Im hearing a lot of your store's are empty!
 
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