- Local time
- Today, 05:41
- May 13, 2020
If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.Indeed. The fact that I never actually suggested that figure makes it even more bullshit!
At 90% infection rate (which we will eventually reach given R0 > 3)
and 1-2% average mortality rate in a population of ~5,000,000
this gives a figure of
(((5,000,000 /100)*90) /100)* 1 = 45,000
(((5,000,000 /100)*90) /100)* 2 = 90,000
That's just basic maths. Assuming you accept those rather conservative R0 and mortality rate figures.
(The accepted IFR (Infected fatality rate) is currently around 1.4% )
Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), and Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) latest estimates for the COVID-19 disease from the SARS-CoV-2 virus originating from Wuhan, Chinawww.worldometers.info
So over the lifetime of this virus (which may run for years) it will potentially kill >45,000 people
and possibly up to double that depending on how it is handled over that period of several years.
We still have a long way to go with this virus. You can call me in a few years time when it's all over
and tell me how wrong I am. Because I do hope I am wrong.
Please read post 42 above. Cheers.